Could This Peter Obi’s Pathway To Victory In 2023?
Numerous estimates and permutations have been made in the lead-up to the upcoming elections.
One winner is predicted by polls and projections. Paul Obi. Given that the PDP and APC have not yet grasped the reasons behind the structureless party’s rapid growth, this pill may be difficult for them to swallow. ANAP and the most recent BANTUPAGE surveys served as the foundation for my own estimates.
Although ANAP has a good reputation and a solid track record, I was quite satisfied with BANTUPAGE’s work, which is why I needed to base my own estimate on these two polls.
I have attached my projections which i did with Excel. The zones in yellow shows zone i had to do a bit of adjustment.
The other zones not colored are zones were the BANTUPAGE projections or ANAP was used without any further input.
I had to separate lagos from SW cos 50% of registerd voters in SW are in lagos. Those who understand statistics would understand the need for this.
The ANAP poll predicts a landslide for Obi, but I think the election will go down the wire even though Obi will win.
Hence I had to combine with that of BANTU which drilled down into ethnicity and religion which will play a major role in this election.
SOUTH-SOUTH- I lowered LP party to get 50% though obi was given 66% on Bantu poll and 46% on ANAP. APC- 10%, PDP-20%
SOUTHWEST- No adjustment was made data from BantuPage.
SOUTHEAST- I had to use ANAP as i couldnt get any poll from Bantu.
NORTH CENTRAL- ANAP was used
NORTH WEST- No adjustment. I had to go with Bantu cos i feel the ANAP poll overstimated LP in this Zone
NORTH-EAST- I had to use Bantu poll even though it didn’t capture Borno, Yobe and Bauchi. I believe this is an APC stronghold.
BANTU POLL gave the following- LP- 15, APC-12, PDP-37(This % didnt capture Borno, Yobe and Bauchi hence i had to do the adjustment.) LP- 15%, APC- 40%, PDP-37. This is APC stronghold hence i expect them to win this region.
Feel free to air your opinion. No insult or tribal slur. If you have a pathway for your candidate, feel free to let us know.